Foreign trade exports are expected to welcome the “new four” and “new five”

Data recently released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that in 2023, my country’s automobile production and sales will both exceed 30 million units for the first time, setting a record high. Among them, 4.91 million units will be exported, and it is expected to become the world’s number one automobile exporter.

Recently, China’s annual foreign trade “report card” was released. According to customs statistics, my country’s total import and export value of goods trade in 2023 will be 41.76 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. Among them, exports were 23.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%. Not only did it hit a new high on a high base, but the growth momentum was also qualitatively and effectively improved. Among them, the export of “three new products” exceeded the trillion yuan mark for the first time.

In 2024, what new changes will come to foreign trade hotspots such as the “Three New Products”? Focusing on these topics, we interviewed many experts for analysis and predictions. In this regard, many parties said that China’s foreign trade market will maintain a stable and positive momentum in 2024, and they are also full of expectations for the development prospects of “four new things” or even “new five things” in the foreign trade industry.

Text/Guangzhou Daily All-Media Reporter Xu Xiaofang

Ships and laser machinery may become “five new things”

Relying on China’s strong supply chain advantages, products represented by electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells are becoming new growth points for my country’s exports and are known as the “three new things” in foreign trade exports. These “high-end”, “intelligent” and “green” products made in China sell well all over the world and are attracting countless fans overseas.

Customs data shows that my country’s export momentum has been abundant and active in the past year. The export of high value-added electromechanical products was 13.92 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, accounting for 58.6% of the total export value; among which, the “three new” products such as electric passenger vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar batteries totaled 1.06 trillion yuan in exports. Yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.9%. Bai Ming, a member of the Academic Degree Committee of the Ministry of Commerce Research Institute, observed that many fields, including ships and other export goods, are also accelerating development. In his view, “the ‘New Three’ may grow into the ‘New Four’ in the future.” Like’ or even ‘New Five'”.

Which products are likely to become a member of the “New Four”? Among them, the reporter noticed that my country’s current ship exports have ushered in a “window period” of “both quality and quantity”, and their performance is outstanding.

Data shows that from January to November 2023, my country exported a total of 4,390 ships, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%; the export value reached 171.7022 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.5%. In this rising cycle, it has become a consensus in the industry that the shipbuilding industry will develop in the direction of “high-end, intelligent, and green”. According to recent announcements by a number of shipping companies, a large proportion of mid-to-high-end ship types and green ships account for a large proportion of orders. Take Guangzhou Shipbuilding International, a subsidiary of China State Shipbuilding Corporation, as an example. The company has 80 orders on hand as of the end of November 2023, worth 50 billion yuan, of which nearly 60% of the orders are high-tech, high value-added methanol dual fuel or LNG dual fuel. Fuel new green ship type.

In addition, looking to the future, industrial laser machinery is also hot along with new energy. At present, our country’s laser machines have completely replaced European and American products in the mid-to-low-end market. The overseas demand for related products is widely distributed. It is used not only in developed countries such as the United States for commercial shop handicraft processing, but also in developing countries such as Brazil, Russia, and Thailand. Home is used in factory production.

Numbers talk about foreign trade

“Five new things”

​Electric vehicles, lithium batteries, solar cells, ships and laser machinery

Value Chain

Data show that in the first 11 months of 2023, the import and export volume of general trade with a longer industrial chain and relatively high added value accounted for 64.8% of total import and export, an increase of 1 percentage point from the same period in 2022, providing high-quality development of foreign trade. provided more powerful support.

Potential market

Data show that in 2023, my country’s imports and exports to countries co-building the “Belt and Road” will be 19.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.8%, accounting for 46.6% of the total import and export value, an increase of 1.2 percentage points. Imports and exports to Latin America and Africa were 3.44 trillion yuan and 1.98 trillion yuan respectively, up 6.8% and 7.1% respectively.

Cross-border e-commerce

Data shows that cross-border e-commerce accounts for 5% of my country’s import and export of goods trade, increasing from 1% in 2015 to 2022. The “2022-2027 China Cross-border E-commerce Market Demand Forecast and Development Trend Forecast Report” released by the China Business Industry Research Institute predicts that the scale of my country’s cross-border e-commerce market will reach 17.9 trillion yuan in 2024.

Outlook: Those who can move up the value chain win

After experiencing a year full of challenges, the “elimination competition” of foreign trade is accelerating, and some foreign trade companies have also become polarized. Some companies with unhealthy cash flow have experienced operating difficulties and even experienced frequent explosions; some companies with core competitiveness have ensured healthy funds by controlling costs, and their performance has actually increased.

The reporter noticed that the proportion of my country’s processing trade in foreign trade has declined in recent years. According to customs data, in the first 11 months of 2023, my country’s processing trade imports and exports were 6.97 trillion yuan, a decrease of 9.7%, accounting for 18.4%. Among them, exports were 4.5 trillion yuan, down 8.6%; imports were 2.47 trillion yuan, down 11.6%.

“The decline in the proportion does not mean that China’s processing trade has regressed or fallen behind. China’s processing trade is still a new force in the entire foreign trade exports. Its importance and role in stabilizing employment and expanding high-tech trade exports has not diminished.” In this regard, Business Wei Jianguo, former Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Commerce and Vice Chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, believes that China’s processing trade has not changed in its direction of upgrading from the mid- to low-end to the mid-to-high end of the global industrial chain, nor has its role in promoting dual circulation changed. He said, “In the current overseas market situation, the foreign trade industry is expected to set off a new round of reshuffle, the survival of the fittest, and ultimately a batch of intelligent products with higher technical barriers and added value will be precipitated, which will then promote the development of China’s manufacturing industry. High-end, intelligent and green transformation and upgrading.”

Currently, China’s exports of goods trade are continuing to move up the value chain. Seeking win-win results with the local supply chain, participating in local infrastructure construction, and developing together with local industries are the current solutions for some foreign trade companies to achieve stable and long-term development. Specifically, on the one hand, companies are strengthening their research and understanding of overseas markets and formulating corresponding marketing strategies and channel expansion plans; on the other hand, they are also trying to increase investment in overseas factories by strengthening cooperation with local overseas companies and governments. and construction, promoting the extension of the industrial chain and further improving the company’s ability to resist risks. In this regard, Bai Ming pointed out that China’s foreign trade currently needs to accelerate the construction of a new industrial system that is compatible with new quality productivity and promote Chinese enterprises to gain more and better trade opportunities in the international division of labor system.